Electric Vehicles In An Electric-Centric World- Part 1

This year's North American Automobile Show in Detroit, Michigan displayed a wide range of innovative -- even exotic -- concept cars, many considered "green", with some even configured as pure electric plug-ins. The shear variety of these electric cars persuaded me to start thinking "what if": what if this electric car future comes to fruition. Where do we obtain the electrical energy to power all of these plug-in vehicles? How do we get there from here?

It is an interesting discussion, considering pure electric "plug-in" models using new and perhaps-to-be developed lithium-ion batteries or other exotic variants thereof, especially when one analyzes the entire vehicle market that is likely to exist in the not-too-distant future. This futuristic vehicle universe is marching inexorably forward to one that is dominated by battery-driven vehicles or those fueled by ethanol [ perhaps cellulosic], bio-diesel, methanol, or powered by hydrogen, fuel cells or a hybrid of the foregoing. Yet this begs the question previously posed: if the market becomes dominated by the battery pack/pure electric option, how will we generate the substantial magnification in electricity production that will be required to power this brave new electricity dominated transportation world? Correspondingly, where will we obtain the fuel/energy and what mix of fuels will we use to do so? It goes without saying, but it will be noted anyway: an increase in consumption demands an equivalent increase in capacity.

A few potential facts to consider. Imagine 100 million -- even 200 million or more - new automobiles on the road in the United States that are manufactured as pure electric "plug-ins", designed to run off an electrical charge contained within battery packs. As an aside, this may ultimately be the best approach to take for environmental reasons once the bugs in the power systems are fixed and the infrastructure to re-charge the batteries is finalized [some suggest the appropriate infrastructure might simply be an extension cord; so why would we delay achievement of a reduced-carbon world by spending many billions of dollars in order to create a hydrogen infrastructure when the infrastructure for pure electric cars - extension chord - already exists with minimal cost]. Now, add to that another 300 million electric cars in India, 400 million electric cars in China, and another 600 million electric cars world-wide. World-wide demand for electricity will be astronomical, not merely beyond comprehension. Then imagine draining billions or more kilowatts per day from the electrical grid to recharge the battery packs, most such charging taking place at the same time [at night at home after work or during work hours at "hitching posts" established in parking places]. To meet such an incomprehensibly large electricity demand and drain on the power grid, additional electric "base-load" generating capacity will be required that is measured in many gigawatts [one billion kilowatts], perhaps even terawatts [one thousand gigawatts].

The International Energy Agency [IEA] projects that 20 trillion dollars - yes, with a "T" - of new worldwide investment will be required to meet the world's energy demand by 2030, only twenty two years away. This is a staggering figure - even a frightening one - especially when one realizes that this estimate does not even consider the major escalation of demand for electricity that arises from an electric-centric personal transportation system. Presently, the world consumes in the neighborhood of approximately 18.5 TW [terawatts; 18,500 gigawatts (GWe)/18,500,000 megawatts(MWe)] with virtually no all-electric vehicles on the highways. By 2030, estimates anticipate that the total world-wide demand for electricity will escalate dramatically to between 30 and 35 TW, and that enormous demand for electricity does not include a large population of vehicles whose motive power is provided by electricity drawn from battery packs.

By 2030, if most automobiles are manufactured to run on an electric/battery system [the best solution for reducing atmospheric pollutants caused by petro-fuel operated internal combustion engines] and we incorporate a rapidly growing population of automobile-using Chinese and Indians, significantly more production of electricity will be required. The expansion of electrical generating capacity to meet the inevitable increase in demand for electricity can not be allowed to be based upon the increased use of fossil fuels or nuclear power. It makes virtually no sense to reduce pollution that is created by automobiles, and then create pollution in another form by generating the power necessary to operate electric vehicles through the combustion of carbon-based fuels or by creating nuclear waste. Exchanging one source of pollution for another is a non-starter; it equates with rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Although alternative energy sources such as solar, wind, micro-hydro and tidal power must become more significant contributors to the world-wide electrical grid, they individually and collectively are grossly incapable of meeting the increase in demand for electricity that surely will be created by the rise of an electric-centric transportation system. Once again the question is posed: "how do we get there from here and what do we use to do so?" Coal? Nuclear? Wind? Solar? Hydro? All of these listed sources of energy/fuel that are used to generate electricity today have their peculiar pluses and minuses. None, however, can meet the challenge of generating substantially more electricity in a carbon-neutral and/or environmentally benign way. Let us take a look.

Share Your Opinion!

Do you have an opinion on the article? Whether you liked or disliked the article, Share it!